Clouds keep secrets even from the best forecasters 云甚至对最好的预测者保密
Clouds keep secrets even from the best forecasters
BRETT ROSSIO, METEOROLOGIST AT ACCUWEATHER
21 Sep 2020
The models my fellow meteorologists and I use to make forecasts can be fairly accurate. But when predicting conditions in a very specific area, things get tricky.
I understand how frustrating that can be, because I’ve dealt with surprise showers myself. There’s one particular incident I’ll never forget: It was the peak of summer in 2018, and my friends and I were on our way to a music festival near our house in State College, Pennsylvania. I had personally analyzed the weather data and was confident there would be no rain. Then, out of nowhere, big cumulonimbus clouds formed above us—the dark, extra-puffy kind that are clearly loaded with precipitation. Soon a torrential downpour drenched precisely and exclusively the area where the event was taking place. We got soaked, and my friends were not pleased.
To determine the weather, we use, among other things, a series of equations to analyze raw data, such as dew point, temperature, wind, and barometric pressure. But that process neglects variables that are difficult to quantify, like the amount of moisture coming off the surface of the Earth at any given time in a specific location. Too much evaporation can sometimes turn a cloudy afternoon into a thunderstorm (though I still think other factors triggered the rain that day). I’ve learned even the best models are just tools; sometimes you have to pop your head out the window and look up.
BRETT ROSSIO，ACCUWEATHER的气象学家 科普 21 9月 2020 我和我的气象学家同事用来进行预报的模型可能相当准确。但是，当预测一个非常特定区域的条件时，事情变得棘手。 我理解这是多么令人沮丧，因为我自己也处理过惊喜淋浴。有一件特别的事情我永远不会忘记：那是2018年夏天的高峰期，我和我的朋友们正在去宾夕法尼亚州州立大学附近参加音乐节的路上。我亲自分析了天气数据，并确信不会下雨。然后，突然之间，在我们头顶上形成了大积雨云—— 黑暗的、非常浮肿的那种，显然充满了降水。很快，一场倾盆大雨恰好完全地淋湿了事件发生的地方。我们浑身湿透了，我的朋友也不高兴。 为了确定天气，我们使用一系列方程来分析原始数据，例如露点，温度，风和气压。但这个过程忽略了难以量化的变量，比如在任何给定时间特定位置从地球表面流出的水分量。过多的蒸发有时会将多云的下午变成雷暴（尽管我仍然认为其他因素触发了当天的降雨）。我了解到，即使是最好的模型也只是工具。有时你必须把头伸出窗外，抬头看。