Computers, Science & Technology

​Clouds keep secrets even from the best forecasters 云甚至对最好的预测者保密

2022-04-03 14:13:00 simyang 2

Clouds keep secrets even from the best forecasters


  • Popular      Science

  • 21      Sep 2020

The models my fellow meteorologists and I use to make forecasts can be fairly accurate. But when predicting conditions in a very specific area, things get tricky.

I understand how frustrating that can be, because I’ve dealt with surprise showers myself. There’s one particular incident I’ll never forget: It was the peak of summer in 2018, and my friends and I were on our way to a music festival near our house in State College, Pennsylvania. I had personally analyzed the weather data and was confident there would be no rain. Then, out of nowhere, big cumulonimbus clouds formed above us—the dark, extra-puffy kind that are clearly loaded with precipitation. Soon a torrential downpour drenched precisely and exclusively the area where the event was taking place. We got soaked, and my friends were not pleased.

To determine the weather, we use, among other things, a series of equations to analyze raw data, such as dew point, temperature, wind, and barometric pressure. But that process neglects variables that are difficult to quantify, like the amount of moisture coming off the surface of the Earth at any given time in a specific location. Too much evaporation can sometimes turn a cloudy afternoon into a thunderstorm (though I still think other factors triggered the rain that day). I’ve learned even the best models are just tools; sometimes you have to pop your head out the window and look up.


BRETT ROSSIO,ACCUWEATHER的象学 21 92020 我和我的气象学家同事用来进行模型可能相当准确是,测一非常特定区域的条件时情变得棘手。 理解是多么令人沮丧因为我自己处理惊喜淋浴特别的事情永远不会忘记那是2018年夏天高峰我和我的朋友们正在宾夕法尼亚州州立大学附近参加音乐节的路上亲自分析天气数据确信不会下雨然后突然之间在我们头顶形成了—— 黑暗非常的那种显然充满了很快盆大恰好完全湿事件发生的地方们浑身湿的朋友也不高兴。 为了确定天气我们使用系列方程分析原始数据例如温度这个过程忽略了难以量化变量比如在任何给定时间特定位置地球表面水分过多蒸发有时会下午变成尽管我仍然认为其他因素触发当天降雨)。了解到即使是最好的模型只是工具时你必须把出窗